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Prediction for CME (2022-12-01T07:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-12-01T07:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22594/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is an M1.0 class flare from AR 13152 (N27W35) which is located just north of a large coronal hole which may have caused deflection of the CME. The eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 94, 131, 193, and 171 with brightening seen in SDO/AIA 304. It is visible across multiple SDO/AIA wavelengths and also in STEREO A EUVI 195. Magnetic amplification at L1, only reaching about 8 nT but followed by component rotation. Plasma data inconclusive, but may possibly be a weak ICME arrival superposed with existing coronal hole high speed stream influence.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-12-04T12:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-12-04T00:50Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-12-01 10:22
 - Time at C2: 2022-12-01 07:48
 - Radial speed: 1306.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N27W17
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M1.0 (N28W34). Peak at 2022-12-01 07:04
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 604.07 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-12-04 00:50 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.05 hours)
Lead Time: 70.48 hour(s)
Difference: 11.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-12-01T13:40Z
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